The impact of climate change will also affect mortality in Europe, and experts estimate that more deaths will be recorded during the summer than in the winter months after 2080, due to the effect of climatic variations, which could be the cause of 230,000 additional deaths during the last 30 years of this century.

At least these are the conclusions reached by the Catalan Institute of Climate Sciences (IC3), which has carried out a study crossing population data with the forecasts about global warming, and which has been based on the approximately 70,000 deaths that occurred as a result of the heat wave that hit Europe in the summer of 2003.

In Europe, 21 people die for every million inhabitants in an ordinary day, while in the days of extreme cold or heat, around 30 people die.


The study shows that in Europe 21 people die for every million inhabitants in a current day, while, in the days of extreme cold or heat, about 30 people die; and, according to the forecasts of the experts, the days with extreme temperatures are the ones that will increase.

To obtain these figures, the researchers analyzed data from 16 European countries, in which 400 million people reside.

The study data show that the Life expectancy it will decrease an average of three or four months, but its authors point out that these figures may vary depending on the European region of residence, the adoption of measures aimed at preventing risk factors, how the emissions of toxic substances evolve into the atmosphere , and the ability of human beings to adapt to new circumstances.

Even taking into account all these variables, Joan Ballester, author of the study, and Xavier Rodó, director of IC3, believe that in 2080 a 'cycle change' will begin, which will mean that the peak of mortality that occurred in winter, and that It was associated with a greater facility for spreading various pathologies, it will move to the summer.

The the Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale de Montpellier, in France, and the Geneva Medical School and University Hospitals of Geneva (Switzerland), have cooperated to carry out this research, published in Nature Communications, which has taken into account the increase in temperatures -about 2 degrees in winter, and 4.5 in summer- occurred in the Mediterranean arc, which is calculated to be the area most affected by climatic variations.

Not all Europe will be harmed by the increase in temperatures, since in regions that are more north of the continent will reduce mortality by softening winters. However, in global terms, the mortality figures associated with climatic causes could amount to 15,000 a year, because in southern Europe the number of deaths will increase significantly.


France, Germany Temperatures Top 100 Degrees as Heatwave Scorches Europe (November 2019).